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By 2050, 52 locations will still be considered climatically suitable for the Winter Olympics.
The number of suitable venues for the Paralympic Games will fall to just 16 by 2080.
Regions such as Europe, North America and Asia remain climatically reliable hosts.
Sustainable snowmaking is becoming the central adaptation strategy in winter sports.
Abstract of this study
In a remarkable coincidence of timing, the world crossed the 1.5°C global warming threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement for the first time, while the international community celebrates the centenary of the Winter Olympics. This raises the question of the future of these events in a warming world.
The most comprehensive study to date analyzed the climatic suitability of 93 potential venues for the snow sports of the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (OWS and PWS).
In the 2050s, 52 venues are still classified as climatically suitable for the Winter Olympics, but this number is reduced to 46 for the 2080s. The Paralympic Winter Games, which traditionally take place in March, are more at risk due to the later date: Only 22 venues still meet the climatic requirements in the 2050s, compared to just 16 in the 2080s.
Applying stricter criteria regarding the required snow depth moderately reduces the number of suitable venues for both events. This underlines the central importance of sustainable artificial snowmaking as an adaptation strategy.
Despite the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution and development of winter sports, the study comes to an encouraging conclusion: even with a reduced number of potential venues, the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games can continue to exist as a truly global sporting event through continuous adaptation measures.
Findings from this study
- Under a medium emissions scenario, 52 sites remain climatically reliable in the 2050s, while 46 sites are considered reliable in the 2080s.
- The PWGs are at much greater risk from climate change. In the baseline, only half of the potential hosts are considered climate reliable, and this proportion falls to 23% in the medium emissions scenario for the 2050s.
- On the positive side, all major global regions that have previously hosted the Olympic Games (North America, Europe and Asia) are represented by several potential hosts that remain climatically reliable under the medium emission scenarios.
Publication: Robert Steiger & Daniel Scott (2024)