Climate change & demographics: scenarios for ski tourism in Austria

Summary of the study

Ski tourism is an important source of income for Austria - especially for rural and remote regions that depend heavily on winter tourism. The future development of this sector is therefore not only important for the social and economic well-being of these regions, but also for the Austrian economy as a whole.

Previous studies have mainly looked at the effects of climate change on ski tourism. However, this study compares both the effects of climate change and the effects of demographic changes. This shows that in the first half of the 21st century, demographic change (e.g. population decline and increasing ageing in the countries of origin of ski tourists) will play a greater role than climate change. By the end of the century, however, climate change could become the stronger influencing factor.

Factors such as the development of snowmaking technology and rising energy and transportation costs (e.g. due to climate protection measures) also play a role. The study therefore recommends that the tourism industry expand its offerings: In addition to classic snow activities, alternatives without snow should also be developed, which can be particularly attractive to older target groups.

Findings from this study

• The effects of climate change on the snow season in mountain tourism are predominantly negative. This means that conditions for winter activities such as skiing and snowboarding are likely to deteriorate. Investments in alternative, snow-independent leisure activities could reduce dependence on snow reliability.
• The age structure of the population in the most important countries of origin is clearly shifting towards older age groups. This means that guests aged 65 and over are becoming increasingly relevant in tourism. Offers that are specifically tailored to the needs of older guests could take this development into account, for example through more comfortable accommodation, gentle winter sports or health and recreation offers.
• Young people are showing a declining interest in skiing, partly due to rising costs and alternative leisure activities. Accordingly, it cannot be taken for granted that the next generation of skiers is guaranteed. Targeted programs such as low-cost introductory offers or cooperation with schools could help to attract young people to winter sports. Rising energy and transportation costs affect both travel to and the operation of ski resorts. This means that winter vacations could become more expensive overall. More efficient energy use and sustainable mobility solutions could reduce operating costs and strengthen competitiveness.
• The economic dependency of some regions on ski tourism is very high. This means that a decline in winter tourism could threaten the existence of these communities. The expansion of year-round offers could stabilize the economic situation and reduce seasonal dependency.

Publication: Robert Steiger (2012)