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Under a "business-as-usual" scenario, experts expect a decline in the provision of key regulatory services provided by mountain forests, such as protection against natural hazards and water regulation.
A future imbalance between supply and demand is emerging, as the social importance of these services is increasing due to climate change, while their availability is declining at the same time.
The study identified complex interactions among forest services, with timber production, in particular, being in significant conflict with goals such as biodiversity and the protection of natural features.
Both ecological factors, such as bark beetle infestations, and social barriers, such as economic uncertainties and communication gaps, hinder future adaptation and the safeguarding of forest ecosystem services.
Abstract of this study
Climate change is altering our mountain forests and, with it, the benefits they provide—such as protection from avalanches and clean drinking water. How we care for and use these forests in the future will help determine how much they can continue to provide. Until now, however, little was known about what stakeholders in the field actually expect for the future of the forests.
In this study, stakeholders from the Tyrolean forestry sector were surveyed. The most important finding: Many key forest services are likely to decline in the future—especially protection against natural hazards. The problem is that, due to climate change, these services are actually becoming increasingly important to people, but the forest is less able to provide them to the necessary extent. This is referred to as a “mismatch between supply and demand.”
The stakeholders also pointed out that conflicts often arise: for example, harvesting large amounts of timber can harm nature conservation or avalanche protection. The study developed a model that illustrates how nature and people are interconnected. This model helps better prepare forests for climate change and find solutions to future problems.
Key Findings of This Study
- Declining Provision of Forest Ecosystem Services: Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, stakeholders expect a decline in the availability of key regulatory services, particularly in terms of protection against natural hazards and water regulation.
- Future imbalance between supply and demand: A critical gap is emerging, as the societal importance of these services is increasing due to climate change, while the natural capacity of forests to provide them is declining.
- Significant Conflicts of Interest Due to Timber Production: The study identified intensive timber harvesting as an area involving significant trade-offs, as it often conflicts directly with goals such as biodiversity conservation and the protection of specific sites.
- Ecological limitations due to disturbances: Biological factors such as bark beetle infestations, windthrow, and increasing drought are viewed as major constraints on the future productivity of mountain forests.
- Social and economic barriers: Adaptation to climate change is hampered by societal obstacles such as economic uncertainty in the forestry sector, communication gaps between stakeholders, and delays in political decision-making.
- Uncertainty regarding carbon sequestration: Carbon sequestration is the only ecosystem service for which forecasts are inconsistent, as experts debate the balance between extended growing seasons and the low climate resilience of current tree species.